NASA's upcoming Artemis 3 mission, aimed at landing astronauts on the Moon, may face further delays

NASA's Artemis 3 mission, set for a crewed lunar landing in September 2026, may face significant delays, according to an assessment conducted by the space agency. The analysis estimates a nearly one-in-three chance that the lunar lander will experience a delay of at least a year and a half, SSP reported.

The assessment was part of a confirmation review for the Human Landing System (HLS) Initial Capability project, which is supporting the development of SpaceX's Starship lunar lander. The review, known as Key Decision Point C, establishes cost and schedule commitments for NASA projects.

The review, held in December 2023, determined a schedule baseline of February 2028 for the Starship lander with a 70% joint confidence level. This means there is a 70% probability that Starship will be ready for a lunar landing by February 2028. This date is approximately 1.5 years after NASA's initial target of September 2026 for Artemis 3. The 70% confidence level also implies a 30% chance that the lander will not be ready until after February 2028.

Not extensively publicized by NASA at the time, the confirmation review was mentioned in a report by the Government Accountability Office (GAO), which evaluates major NASA programs. The GAO report highlights that the assessment of the schedule is independent of the readiness of other mission components, such as the Space Launch System, Orion spacecraft, and new lunar spacesuits.

NASA confirmed the dates mentioned in the GAO report while reiterating that Artemis 3 remains on schedule for September 2026. The agency described the figures in the report as accurate, risk-informed estimates at a 70% joint confidence level and expressed confidence in SpaceX's ability to contribute to the mission.

The cost for the HLS Initial Capability project, determined by the KDP-C, was set at $4.9 billion with the same confidence level. This includes the $2.9 billion fixed-price contract awarded to SpaceX as well as awards to Blue Origin, Dynetics, and NASA project office costs from earlier project phases.

Cathy Koerner, NASA's associate administrator for exploration systems development, reaffirmed the 2026 timeline for Artemis 3 during a meeting of the National Academies' Space Studies Board. She acknowledged the technical challenges involved in the HLS effort and highlighted the upcoming in-space cryogenic propellant transfer test in early 2025 as a significant milestone.

It was noted in the GAO report and confirmed by Koerner that the standing review board recommended SpaceX's in-space propellant transfer tests to inform the program's critical design review, currently planned for 2025.

While NASA is not considering any changes to the current plan stated by Koerner, contingency plans are being developed. Assessments of potential alternative plans and backup options are ongoing to ensure due diligence in case of unforeseen circumstances.