Glancing Blow from Coronal Mass Ejection May Cause Geomagnetic Storm

On 1 September, the Sun erupted in a coronal mass ejection (CME) that may impact Earth between 3 and 4 September. During such eruptions, solar material is violently expelled into space. When this hot gas encounters Earth, it can trigger geomagnetic storms. Although the majority of material from the 1 September CME is expected to miss Earth, a glancing blow could still induce geomagnetic activity.

The South African National Space Agency (SANSA) forecasts a peripherical impact from this CME early on 4 September. They noted, "Another CME associated with an M5.5 observed on 01 September is expected to give a peripheral impact at Earth." Similarly, the British Geological Survey mentioned the possibility of glancing impacts during the first forecast interval. They warned that this could lead to active periods and potential G1 storm conditions.

The UK Met Office reported that a large CME observed on 1 September would mostly pass behind Earth's orbit. However, they noted some faint shock signals in imagery, indicating possible glancing impacts. Both the Space Weather Prediction Centre (SWPC) of NOAA and the Solar Influences Data Analysis Centre (SIDC) from the Royal Observatory of Belgium predicted no direct strike from the CME.

Geomagnetic Activity on 4 September 2024

On 4 September 2024, the kIndex level of 3 indicates minimal geomagnetic activity. This index measures geomagnetic disturbances driven by solar activity, ranging from 0 (very quiet) to 9 (extremely disturbed). A level of 3 signifies stable geomagnetic conditions with little solar wind interference. This calm environment typically has little to no effect on the well-being of weather-sensitive individuals.

Although increased geomagnetic activity can cause mood fluctuations or fatigue for some, a kIndex of 3 suggests these effects are unlikely. This stability can help those attuned to space weather maintain a balanced mental state and experience fewer disruptions in their daily lives. Overall, this quiet period may provide comfort and a sense of normalcy for those monitoring geomagnetic activity.

Earlier, SSP published the analysis of space weather activity.