Analysis of Space Weather Activity Over the Past 24 Hours
Space weather refers to changes in environmental conditions within near-Earth space. It involves the interaction of magnetic fields, radiation, particles, and matter ejected from the Sun. These interactions can influence the Earth’s upper atmosphere and magnetic surroundings, resulting in a variety of effects.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity Over the Past 24 Hours
Solar Activity: The solar activity level has been moderate, with four moderate-class flares occurring in the last 24 hours. The peak flare was recorded at 31/1302 UTC from a large region located in the southeast. Presently, there are thirteen identified sunspot regions on the solar disc. The largest region is also in the southeast and has shown ongoing emergence of small peripheral spots while increasing in size. A region located near the south center continues to evolve into a simple magnetic structure after significant growth. Regions emerging over the limb are not fully visible yet, which may change the analysis, but one may be an previously large and complicated region observed in the previous rotation. The remaining regions appear relatively straightforward and stable for now.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been noted.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar winds experienced enhancement due to weak influence from a CME and fast winds. Wind speeds ranged from 340 to 410 km/s. Throughout this period, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field displayed weak to moderate activity, sometimes varying erratically. The north-south component was mostly moderately negative but shifted to weakly positive at times. Geomagnetic activity remained quiet to active, categorized as Kp 2-4.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles, specifically high-energy protons, remained at background levels with no solar radiation storms detected.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate solar activity is forecasted, with a slight chance of isolated strong flares. The primary risk for flares originates from the large sunspot region in the southeast.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Currently, no Earth-directed CMEs are expected. The existing enhancement might cause minor geomagnetic activity on Day 1 (01 Sep). Another enhancement may occur later on Day 1 or more likely on Day 2 (02 Sep) due to a narrow equatorial coronal hole. Significant enhancements are deemed unlikely at this stage.
Initially, mainly quiet to active geomagnetic activity is anticipated (Kp 2-4). There is a slight chance of experiencing G1/minor storm intervals (Kp 5) on Day 1 and possibly again on Day 2 due to further enhancements from fast winds. The risk of storm activity is expected to lessen from Day 3 (03 Sep) onwards, with predominantly quiet conditions (Kp 1-2) forecasted.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is projected to remain at background levels, with only a slight chance of surpassing the S1/minor radiation storm threshold.
