Geomagnetic Activity: October 14, 2024
The geomagnetic environment around Earth has remained disturbed after the CME from October 10. After reaching solar wind speeds just below 700 km/s, levels eased to approximately 570 km/s. Initially Moderate, the interplanetary magnetic field weakened to a Weak level after 13/1200 UTC. The north-south component (Bz) primarily exhibited positive values, alternating briefly with negative ones. Geomagnetic activity was generally easy to Active, with an interval marking a G1 Minor Storm (Kp5) observed on 12/0900-1200 UTC.
Aurora Forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
No significant enhancements to the aurora are expected, and visibility will be limited to the northernmost latitudes, specifically excluding the UK. Early Tuesday morning, there may be a slight chance for the aurora to extend southward, potentially continuing into the evening. This could offer occasional glimpses to the far north of Scotland.
Southern Hemisphere
Similar to the northern half, no significant aurora visibility enhancements are anticipated, keeping the aurora confined to Antarctica. However, there is a minor possibility that the aurora could extend northward on Tuesday, maybe lingering into the evening. This development might allow for a few glimpses in the far south of New Zealand.
Space Weather Forecast
A chance of a G1 Minor Storm occurs on day three (October 15) due to a glancing coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival. Isolated Moderate-class flares are likely during this period.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over Past 24 Hours
Solar Activity
Solar activity levels were low, with only common class flares discerned. The solar disc presents seven sunspot regions, with the largest located in the northwest. This site features a main spot, displaying complexity from a newly emerging opposite magnetic polarity spot to its north. Additionally, two regions coexist east of the south-central disc. While these spots are essentially bipolar, their interaction may provoke solar flare activity. The other regions remain simple, though notable growth has occurred in the two new regions west of the north-central area and in the northeast.
There have been no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections observed.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation
After a recent surge, the count rate of energetic particles (high-energy protons) decreased and returned to background levels. No Solar Radiation Storms were reported.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity
Low to Moderate solar activity levels are anticipated, including isolated Moderate-class flares and a slight chance for Strong-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity
A chance exists for a glancing impact from the CME early on day three (October 15). Currently, no Earth-directed CMEs are present. The presently disturbed geomagnetic environment is likely to ease gradually, with elevated solar winds declining to background levels. A low confidence exists for a fast wind enhancement from a coronal hole on day three. Overall, mainly Quiet to Active geomagnetic activity at first is projected to transition to mainly Quiet with Unsettled intervals, alongside potential enhancements from coronal holes or CME effects, primarily on day three.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation
The energetic particle count (high-energy protons) is projected to continue at background levels, with no Solar Radiation Storms anticipated. Nonetheless, a slight chance of further enhancements exists due to the large sunspot region in the northwest and the movement of sunspots into the south-central disc.
