Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Forecast for August 23

Solar activity is predicted to stay at moderate levels due to the complexity of multiple regions visible on the Sun's disk and areas expected to return from the Sun's farside, according to NOAA. There's a slight chance of experiencing R3 (Strong) activity, attributed to currently monitored active regions on the near side of the Sun. No proton events are anticipated at geosynchronous orbit, and the electron flux above 2 MeV at this orbit is forecasted to remain at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic Activity

Geomagnetic field activity is anticipated to be mainly quiet, with unsettled conditions possibly occurring on August 22-23 due to the influence of coronal holes. The forecast primarily includes recurrent solar wind features such as CH HSSs (Coronal Hole High-Speed Streams) and SSBCs (Sector Boundary Crossings), with CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) added as they occur. As recorded on August 23, 2024, the geomagnetic activity level at a k-index of 3 signifies a quiet geomagnetic environment, meaning minimal impact on both satellite operations and technological systems.

Radiation Activity

According to NOAA GOES-18, solar radiation over the past 24 hours was below S-scale storm level thresholds. R1-R2 (Minor to Moderate) radio blackouts are anticipated until August 24 due to M-class flare activity, with a slight chance of R3 (Strong) events, particularly given the activity potential in ARs 3790 and 3796.

Impact on Daily Life

Despite the complex solar activity projected, the stable geomagnetic conditions denoted by a k-index of 3 usually result in negligible impacts on individuals sensitive to atmospheric variations. These conditions generally do not hinder satellite operations or other technological infrastructure. In some cases, minor effects such as slight fatigue or mood changes may be felt by weather-sensitive individuals, although these are generally minimal.

Overall, the stable geomagnetic environment contributes to improved sleep patterns and well-being for those sensitive to atmospheric changes, thus presenting a stable backdrop with insignificant influences on both technological systems and human activity.

Read also on SSP: Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast for August 22.