Solar Maximum in Action: What to Expect Next Year

With the Solar Maximum approaching, the next year or so is an excellent time to witness the Aurora Borealis. Even now in 2024, we've seen remarkable displays of the Northern Lights. As Aurora Season aligns with Solar Maximum, more breathtaking views are expected. On May 10, 2024, people across Canada and the U.S. observed one of the best Aurora Borealis displays in over two decades, akin to the unforgettable geomagnetic storm of October 2003. This is prepared by SSP.

Evidence shows the Sun is reaching its peak within the 11-year solar cycle, with maximum activity likely between mid-2024 and mid-2025. We're currently witnessing the highest number of sunspots in over two decades, peaking at an average sunspot number of 196.5 in July 2024 as reported by the Royal Observatory of Belgium’s Solar Influences Data Analysis Center. Due to ongoing increases in sunspot counts, San Diego State astronomer Douglas Leonard points out that pinpointing the exact maximum is challenging. Confirmation of the peak requires analysis of data from six months prior and six months post the projected maximum.

Solar Cycle 25 is slated to conclude around 2030, ushering in Solar Cycle 26 in 2031. Observations already hint at the onset of the next cycle, noticeable through typical precursor patterns on the Sun, such as sunspots moving toward the equator. Despite being only halfway through Solar Cycle 25, the system shows more activity than anticipated. When Solar Cycle 25 began in 2019, it was predicted to be weak to average, in contrast to the relatively dormant Solar Cycle 24. However, by January 20, 2023, Solar Cycle 25 had surpassed Solar Cycle 24 with a 12% increase in daily sunspots. NOAA revised its forecast substantially by October 2023, predicting a faster, more intense cycle. Part of this revamp stems from enhanced methods for tracking solar activity, focusing on both sunspots and the magnetic dynamics that generate them.

On a related note, an M7.6 solar flare from Region 3842 caused an R2 (Moderate) radio blackout on August 30 at 2359 UTC, further underscoring the heightened solar activity we're experiencing during this current peak phase of Solar Cycle 25.

Studying the Sun’s behavior through helioseismic data continues to evolve, offering deeper insights into solar patterns and activity timing, which could vastly improve forecast accuracy for future solar cycles.