Solar weather update: moderate flares expected

In the upcoming space weather forecast, moderate flares are expected, accompanied by a possibility of strong flares, as well as a chance of these flares surpassing the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold. Additionally, there is a potential influence from a glancing coronal mass ejection (CME) early on Day 1 (August 4th). There is also a chance of a G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storm.

Over the past 24 hours, solar activity has been classified as high. Notably, a peak impulsive moderate-class flare occurred at 03/1839UTC from a complex sunspot region in the northeast quadrant. Another moderate-class flare was observed at 03/1930UTC from a region around the east limb which is expected to rotate onto the Earth-facing side within the next day.

Thirteen sunspot regions are currently visible on the active disc, with three regions clustered closely together in the southwestern section. Two of these regions are in close proximity, displaying visible magnetic complexity. As these regions approach the west limb, they become increasingly challenging to analyze. Two regions in the southeast exhibit some magnetic complexity, while another region near the east limb is yet to be fully assessed. Two regions in the northeast have shown a slight decline in activity. For now, all other regions appear generally stable.

No other Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) directed toward Earth have been observed within the past 24 hours.

Shifting focus to the solar wind and geomagnetic activity, the solar wind has declined to background levels. Initially, wind speeds were around 400 km/s but decreased to approximately 330 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field exhibited weak to moderate variations, with the north-south component also displaying weak fluctuations. Geomagnetic activity has remained at quiet to unsettled levels (Kp 1-3).

Regarding energetic particles and solar radiation, the count rate of high-energy protons remains at background levels.

Looking ahead at the four-day space weather forecast, moderate to high solar activity is anticipated. Occasional moderate-class flares are expected, and there is a possibility of isolated strong flares.

Solar wind and geomagnetic activity are likely to be influenced by a CME originating from AR3768, which could have a glancing effect on Earth early on Day 1 (August 4th). While Stereo-A has shown some evidence of the CME's arrival, there is currently no evidence of its presence at L1. Considering the significant number of coincident CMEs in recent days, it cannot be ruled out that further arrivals may occur throughout the period.

No enhancements from coronal hole fast winds are expected during this time frame, with CME arrivals being the primary factor of interest. Geomagnetic activity is predicted to range from generally quiet to unsettled, occasionally reaching active to G1/Minor Storm levels. Moreover, there is a slight possibility of G2/Moderate Storms if any CME arrivals deliver more than a glancing impact. In the absence of additional CME influence, activity is projected to become mostly quiet later in the forecast period.

As for energetic particles and solar radiation, current levels are classified as background. However, there is a chance of exceeding the S1/Minor Solar Radiation Storm level if larger flares occur from the western region of the sun.

Earlier SSP reported that Aurora Borealis will reach New York and Idaho this weekend amid powerful solar flares.