Space Weather Forecast Overview: September 23

Chance of moderate flares (R1/R2 radio blackouts) throughout. Expect active intervals and G1/minor geomagnetic storms from September 24 to 25.

Solar Storms Forecast

Today's Solar Activity

Date: 23 September

K-index: 2 (Low)

Analysis of Space Weather Activity Over the Past 24 Hours

Solar Activity:

The solar activity remains low, with only occasional common class flares observed. The largest flare originated from a region to the west of the north-centre disc.

Currently, there are eight sunspot regions visible on the Earth's disc. The most complex region is located in the southeast. A northwest region has recently lost its delta spot, which separated from the large leader spot. Nearby, a magnetically intricate region has consolidated its central area into a developing weak delta spot. The southwest area, previously the source of a strong flare on September 14, continues to decay. The other regions are smaller, simpler, and stable.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity:

Solar wind speeds have been between background and slightly elevated, ranging from 340 km/s to 450 km/s. Current speeds are near 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained weak, with the north-south component fluctuating between weakly northward and southward directed. Geomagnetic activity was categorized as quiet (Kp 0–2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation:

The rate of energetic particles (high-energy protons) remains at background levels.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity:

Low to moderate activity is expected, with a chance of isolated moderate-class flares. By Day 2 (September 23), at least one new or returning region should appear on the disc. This is supported by brightness observed near the limb in SDO/AIA-0094 imagery and helioseismic analysis of the far-side.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity:

No Earth-directed CMEs are presently expected. A slight chance exists for a weak enhancement during Day 1 (September 22) due to interaction with faster solar winds from a narrow coronal hole in the northwest. Another enhancement is anticipated from late Day 3 (September 24) linked to a stronger coronal hole currently visible near the centre of the disc. Overall, solar wind speeds are expected to largely remain at or near background levels, increasing towards the end of the period to about 500 km/s.

Generally, expect mostly quiet activity (Kp 0-2) with isolated unsettled intervals (Kp 3). If fast winds begin by the end of Day 3 and into Day 4 (September 25), there may be a chance for active intervals (Kp 4) and G1/minor geomagnetic storm conditions (Kp 5).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation:

The count rate of energetic particles is projected to stay at background levels, with no solar radiation storms anticipated.