Analysis of Space Weather Activity: Chance of Moderate-class Flares

Solar activity is currently low, with only a few low-class flares recorded. A total of ten sunspot regions are visible, the most complex being near the southeast limb. Here, a small delta-spot, indicating oppositely charged areas, suggests potential flare activity. However, this region appears small and ragged.

In the southwest, two regions have experienced slight growth, characterized by simple bipolar configurations. Additionally, a complex region east of the south-center disc consists predominantly of one magnetic polarity, exhibiting minimal opposite polarity observations. This area also remains relatively inactive. Weak growth has been noted elsewhere, particularly in the northeast, where two small new spots have emerged.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity

A very weak influence from a glancing CME was detected, alongside generally slow background wind conditions. Initially, solar wind speeds persisted around 300 km/s but increased to between 300-350 km/s following the CME, observed around 28/0710 UTC. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field’s strength initially was weak but briefly reached moderate levels due to the CME until 28/1130 UTC, after which it turned weak again. The north-south component of the magnetic field began weakly positive and evolved to moderately negative by 29/0839 UTC. It then exhibited variability but stayed weak overall. Geomagnetic activity levels ranged from quiet to unsettled (Kp 0-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation

The count rate for energetic particles has remained at background levels. No solar radiation storms were noted.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity

Expect low to moderate solar activity, with a chance of isolated moderate-class flares. There is a slight possibility of a strong flare from AR3842.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity

No Earth-directed CMEs are present. Forecasts suggest background solar winds until a possible weak enhancement brought by faster winds from a coronal hole. Elevated solar winds are anticipated predominantly on Days 1 and 2 (29-30 Sep) before returning to slower background conditions. Generally quiet geomagnetic conditions (Kp 0-2) are expected, but unsettled to active conditions may arise (Kp 3-4) from faster solar winds on Days 1 and 2.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation

The count rate for energetic particles is expected to stay at background levels with no solar radiation storms anticipated.